Between tariffs and cuts: new impacts on the global economic scenario

March was marked by significant challenges, with the S&P 500 recording its worst quarterly performance since 2022. In this edition, Marcio Brito, Head Investor at Banco Itaú International, analyzes how trade tensions and new tariffs strongly impacted markets, raising questions about the global economic future.

Check out some highlights:

• The risk of recession in the US has increased considerably, reflecting growing concerns about trade disputes and macroeconomic factors.
• American consumer confidence hit its lowest level since November 2022, signaling economic caution.
• Inflation expectations in the US rose to 5.0% in March, the highest level since November 2022, reigniting debates about the possibility of stagflation – weak economic growth combined with high inflation.
• The market adjusted its expectations for monetary policy, now predicting three interest rate cuts throughout the year, in response to concerns about slowing economic growth.
• Significant budget cuts were implemented by the US Department of Government Efficiency, aiming to reduce the number of federal employees by 75%, which may contribute to economic slowdown and increased unemployment.
• New tariffs announced by the US, with a 10% base on all imports and rates of up to 48% for some countries, caused strong negative reactions in the markets, with significant drops in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and various sectors of the economy.

Watch the full video below: