Did Aggressive Tariffs Push US Treasuries to Price in a Recession?
The Weekly Globe: in this article, we analyze whether the US Treasury bond market, which sets the cost of capital for the global reserve currency, is already pricing in a US recession and what to watch to gauge sentiment in the US fixed income market
By Alejandro Estevez-Breton, Chief Fixed Income Strategist
The tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump since the beginning of his term are expected to raise the average tariff on US imports to over 20%, the highest level in almost a century. Given this scenario, many analysts have raised their projections for a US recession over the next year.
In this article, we analyze whether the US Treasury bond market, which sets the cost of capital for the global reserve currency, is already pricing in a US recession and what to watch to gauge sentiment in the US fixed income market.
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