Evolution of the Economic Scenario in the First Quarter of the Year
As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2024, it is becoming more interesting to assess the evolution of the economic scenario thus far.
By Victor Camacho
At the end of last year, we discussed the expectations for the international outlook in 2024, highlighting the high dependence on inflationary dynamics. At that point, the markets seemed to price in a soft landing scenario for the US, that is, inflation that would begin to decline more significantly, associated with economic activity that was only gradually slowing down.
On the other hand, we believed that inflation, in particular core inflation measures (which excluded more volatile items, such as food and energy), would continue to move at a monthly pace that would lead to a fall from the high levels seen in recent months, but still at a level above the US central bank's target, which would result in higher interest rates for longer period than expected.