Itaú Blog

Market update: read the highlights of the year's final live

Check out the main points discussed in the third edition of the global markets conversation, which included Gina Baccelli, our chief economist

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Itaú Private Bank

• 3 minutos de leitura

Souce: Itaú Private Bank

Last Thursday the 16th, we held our third "Market Update" meeting, a monthly live on global markets with Marcelo Aagesen, Head of Global Markets and Strategy, and Niraj Patel, Chief Equities Strategy, both from Itaú Private Bank international. Gina Bacelli, the chief economist of Ita Private Bank, joined the chat as a guest in this edition.

Here are some highlights from the discussion:

On the international stage, it has been a mainly positive month

So far, and following the Fed and European Central Bank meetings this week, the month has been relatively positive for the markets. The message from global banks is that strategies are working - the Fed has even slowed the pace of interest rate hikes - but there is still much work to be done, and the uptrend will continue for some time.

The CPI (US) results for October and November, as well as the performance of fixed income, boosted the outlook in the international equity market. Although inflation and interest rates have been constant concerns throughout the year, the impact on the stock market has been essentially positive until the last few days, when the market responded, not very positively, to the latest interest rates released by banks, particularly those in Europe.

United States

The third-quarter earnings is complete, and the results were generally positive. Now the focus is on consumer spending, because, while the results were better than expected, they were worse than the market expected, causing more caution in comparison to the previous quarter.

The Geopolitical Situation

The markets are currently focused on the manner in which the reopening will take place in China. Because of demand, the rate at which it occurs could have an impact on oil prices. Another thing to keep an eye on is the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has a direct impact on supply, which has remained relatively stable despite the sanctions. Our experts discussed the current situation as well as the possibilities for 2023.

Outlook for 2023

In the baseline scenario, the outlook remains for global stagflation in 2023, with moderate growth in the USA and slightly negative GDP in Europe. We expect the end of the interest rate hike cycles by the middle of next year, both from the European Central Bank and the Fed.

The outlook for the stock market is for volatility, with impacts based primarily on the behavior of the reopening in China, its impact on the price of oil, production chains, and consumer spending. Resilience will be required, but this will be a year of good stock market opportunities.

You can watch the full live below: